2021年4月1日木曜日

No.160 "About the involvement of the tourism industry with regional development 2021" April issue

宮川の夜桜 Cherry blossoms at night in Miyagawa 

 
【日本の感染者と重傷者と死亡者数の推移(日毎) 3月31日現在】Number of infected and seriously injured and fatalities in Japan (per day), As of March 31

感染者数 Number of infected people in Japan

重傷者数 Number of seriously injured in Japan

死亡者数 Number of fatalities in Japan
 
0
0
新型コロナは日本ではお年寄りの感染症である。In Japan, the novel coronavirus is an infectious disease for the elderly. 

A voter turnout by age group in the Japanese House of Representatives election 

 
【4月1日現在のPCR検査件数】PCR tests status as of April 1

PCR検査件数の内訳 - 厚労省のHPから Breakdown of the number of PCR tests - From the MHLW‘s website 

 テレビも新聞も報じないが、緊急事態宣言の根拠となる日本の感染者の確認数は、民間の検査会社の検査数によって大きく振幅する。4月1日は13961件。最近の最大値は3月18日の52604件。これは1月13日の54424件に次ぐ最多だった。
 ちなみに、最近の大阪と東京の検査総数を比べると、東京が検査を抑制しているのがよく分かる。聖火リレーが始まったからだろうか?
 ところで、No.155から折に触れて書いてきた、志摩市で開催予定だったPALM 9(第9回 太平洋・島嶼サミット)は、4月1日、テレビ会議で6月28日に開催されることに決まった。もう、何をか言わんやである。

Although neither TV nor newspapers report, the number of confirmed cases of infected people in Japan, which is the basis of the state of emergency, is actually greatly influenced by the number of tests conducted by private inspection companies. April 1 is 13961. The recent maximum is 52604 of March 18. this was the maximum after 54424 of January 13.
Incidentally, if you compare the total number of tests in Osaka and Tokyo recently, you can see that the Tokyo test is suppressed. this is because the torch relay has begun?
By the way, April 1, the PALM9 which I had occasionally written since No.155, which was scheduled to be held in Shima City, Mie Prefecture, was decided to be held by video conferencing on June 28. the risk of harassment by CCP is gone.

 
【知れば知るほど奈良はおもしろい】The more you know, the more interesting Nara is

 奈良県ビジターズビューローから2017年の春号まで発行されていた国内市場向けのリーフレット「知れば知るほど奈良はおもしろい」が復活した。特集は聖徳太子。今年は1400年忌だ。このリーフレットは資料性があり、読み物としても良くできている。発行はビューローからではなく、奈良県観光局の観光プロモーション課だ。主要ターゲットは東京である。が、私は松阪市(割烹旅館八千代松阪文化舎と観光協会本居宣長記念館)と、津エアポートラインいつきのみや歴史体験館への再設置もOKを出した。三重と奈良とは帰属する経済圏が違うため、隣県なのに情報が届いてないからである。

The leaflet for the domestic market, "The more you know, the more interesting Nara is," which was published by the Nara Prefecture Visitors Bureau until the spring issue of 2017, has been revived. The special feature is Prince Shotoku. this year is the 1400th anniversary. this leaflet is a document, and is well made as a reading material too. the issued is not from the Visitors Bureau, but from the Tourism Promotion Division of the Nara Prefecture Tourism. The main target is Tokyo. But, I also allowed installation in Matsusaka City (Kappo Ryokan Yachiyo, Matsusaka Bunkasha and Tourism Association, Motoori Norinaga Museum), Tsu Airport Line, and Itsukinomiya Hall for Historical Experience. It because the economic areas to which they belong are different Nara with Mie, so it is difficult for information to reach them even though they are in the neighboring prefecture.

 
【商圏の人口構成】Population composition of the trade area

 
【国連世界観光機関の2021年の見通し】UNWTO‘s outlook for 2021

Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international tourist arrivals to be down about 85% in the first quarter of 2021 over the same period of 2019. This would represent a loss of some 260 million international arrivals when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Looking ahead, UNWTO has outlined two scenarios for 2021, which consider a possible rebound in international travel in the second half of the year. These are based on a number of factors, most notably a major lifting of travel restrictions, the success of vaccination programmes or the introduction of harmonized protocols such as the Digital Green Certificate planned by the European Commission.
The first scenario points to a rebound in July, which would result in a 66% increase in international arrivals for the year 2021 compared to the historic lows of 2020. In this case, arrivals would still be 55% below the levels recorded in 2019. The second scenario considers a potential rebound in September, leading to a 22% increase in arrivals compared to last year. Still, this would be 67% below the levels of 2019.

[抄訳]現状だと、国際観光客到着の2021年の第1四半期は、2019年の同時期の約85%減少するとUNWTOは予測している。これはパンデミック前のレベルと比較した場合、概ね2億6,000万人の国際観光客の損失に相当する。
国連世界観光機関は将来を見据え、2021年の2つのシナリオを概説した。グラフは、今年下半期の海外旅行回復の可能性を示したものである。これらのシナリオは、今年の下半期に海外旅行が回復する可能性を示しているが、特にこれらは、旅行制限の大幅な解除、予防接種プログラムの成功、または欧州委員会によって計画されたデジタルグリーン証明書などの調和したプロトコルの導入といった多くの要因に基づいている。
最初のシナリオは7月の回復を示しており、2020年の過去最低値と比較して2021年の国際線到着数は66%増加する。この場合、到着数は2019年に記録されたレベルを55%下回る。2番目のシナリオでは、9月の潜在的な回復を示しており、到着数は昨年比で22%増加する。それでも、これは2019年のレベルを67%下回ることになる。

記・コロナ禍以前の2019年については、No.157に翻訳して記録してある。【インターナショナル・ツーリズム・ハイライト2020】をご参照下さい。
Note: For 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic, I recorded it in No.157. Please refer to [International Tourism Highlights 2020].
 

 
【まん延防止等重点措置】The Important Point Measures such as Prevention of Spread

The targets of the pre-stage measures for this state of emergency are six cities: Osaka City, Kobe City, Nishinomiya City, Amagasaki City, Ashiya City, and Sendai City. from the 5th.

3月末で閉館 Closing down as of the end of March 

【英国や米国での規制緩和】Deregulation in the UK and US

 4月5日、英首相は、新型コロナウイルス対策として、ロンドンを中心としたイングランド地方に導入した外出規制の緩和を拡大し、4月12日から小売店や美容院の営業再開を認めると発表した。これにより約3カ月ぶりに、飲食店も屋外席に限ってだが利用可能となる。
 これは、感染者数の減少やワクチン接種の普及を受けた対応で、1月上旬に導入したロックダウンの緩和第2弾。英政府は更に5月の中旬には飲食店の屋内席や娯楽施設などの営業再開を認める計画だ。また、ワクチン接種歴や感染検査の陰性結果などを示す「証明書」の提示により、大規模イベント会場やナイトクラブへの入場を認める制度の導入も検討。今月中旬から一部のプロサッカー試合会場などで試験的に導入される。
 また、米国においても年に一度の大型観光貿易ショー「IPW2021」が、ラスベガスでリアル開催されることが決まった。この米国旅行協会主催のBtoB貿易ショーは、世界をリードする国際的な旅行見本市であり、米国の旅行業界に47億ドル(5163億4670万円)の売上をもたらす。昨年は新型コロナウイルスで中止となっていたが、開催地ネバダ州や米国疾病予防管理センターのガイドラインに沿って実施される。期間は2021年9月18~22日だ。
 ただし、アポイントメント時間が1回20分から15分に変更になる。また、全員での昼食会を中止し、3つのブレイクに分けて取ってもらうとの事である。
 4月6日現在、英国でのワクチン累計接種回数は3723万3157回で100人あたり55.3回(%)。米国は1億6499万3128回で100人あたり49.7回(%)だ。一方、日本は119万6884回で0.9回(%)にすぎない。

While this graph can even show the difference in defense consciousness in bacterial warfare, also there are other factors in Israel's excellence. 

On April 5, the British Prime Minister announced that he would expand the deregulation of going out restrictions introduced in the England region centered on London as a countermeasure against the novel coronavirus, and would allow retail stores and beauty salons to resume operations from April 12. As a result, restaurants will be available for the first time in about 3 months, although it's outdoor seats only.
This is the second lockdown mitigation introduced in early January in response to the decrease in the number of infected people and the spread of vaccination. In addition, the British government plans to allow the reopening of indoor seats in restaurants and entertainment facilities in mid-May. Also, considering introducing a system that allows admission to large-scale event venues and nightclubs by presenting a "certificate" that shows the vaccination history and negative results of infection tests. It will be introduced on a trial basis at some professional soccer match venues from the middle of this month.
In addition, also in the United States, it has been decided that the annual large-scale tourism trade show "IPW2021" will be held in Las Vegas. This B to B trade show is sponsored by the U.S. Travel Association, and is the world's leading international travel trade fair, and it will bring 4.7 billion USD in sales to the US travel industry. Last year it was canceled due to the novel coronavirus, but it will be implemented in accordance with the guidelines of the venue Nevada and the CDC. The period is September 18-22, 2021.
However, the appointment time will be changed from 20 minutes to 15 minutes each time. In addition, they will cancel the luncheon for everyone and ask them to take it in three breaks.
As of April 6, the cumulative number of vaccinations in the UK is 37,233,157, 55.3 per 100 people. in the US is 164,993,128, 49.7 per 100 people. On the other hand, in Japan, only 1,196,884, 0.9 per 100 people.

【2021年2月の国際収支】Balance of Payments for February 2021

 4月8日、財務省が2月の国際収支を発表した。経常収支は2兆9169億円の黒字である。
 貿易収支は5242億円の黒字で、旅行収支も211億円の黒字だ。2月のインバウンドは7400人(速報値)で、アウトバウンドは2万4800人(速報値)。受取は233億円で、支払は258億円。したがって、一人あたりの単価はインバウンドが314万8649円、アウトバウンドが104万0323円となる。ビジネスオンリーなので高額だ。
 航空旅客はアウトバウンドが多いのに2億円の赤字、海上旅客も2億円の赤字。その他サービスは414億円の赤字で、サービス収支全体では757億円の赤字。ニュースは言わないが、サービス貿易は日本の弱点だ。だからこそ、外貨獲得の為にもインバウンドの再開が望まれる。そのためには宿泊施設や観光施設を温存する必要がある。

On April 8, the Ministry of Finance announced the balance of payments for February. The current account balance is a surplus of 2,916.9 billion JPY.
The trade balance is a surplus of 524.2 billion JPY, and the travel balance is also a surplus of 21.1 billion JPY. February‘s inbound was 7,400 (preliminary) and outbound was 24,800 (preliminary). credit 44.4 billion JPY and david 23.3 billion JPY. therefore, the unit price per person is 3,148,649 JPY for inbound and 1,040,323 JPY for outbound. It's expensive because business only.
Air passengers have a lot of outbound but a deficit of 200 million JPY, and sea passengers also have a deficit of 200 million JPY. Other services have a deficit of 41.4 billion JPY, and the overall service balance is a deficit of 75.7 billion JPY. Japanese trade of services is less conscious. That is why, it is desirable to resume inbound tourism as a means of earning foreign currency. To do this, it is necessary to protect accommodations and tourist facilities.

日銀の国際収支項目より From the BOJ's balance of payments Items 

 
【4月10日現在の感染確認数】Number of confirmed infections as of April 10

 47都道府県で確認された感染者数は50万4805人、死者数は9398人で、死亡率は1.86%に減った。検査が再び増加して分母が増えたからだ。世界平均は2.27%の維持である。

The number of infected people confirmed in 47 prefectures was 504,805, and the number of deaths was 9,398. the mortality reduced to 1.86%. this is because the denominator has increased because the number of tests by private companies has increased again. The world average is maintained 2.27%.
 

【まん延防止等重点措置の追加】Addition of Important Point Measures such as Prevention of Spread

Tokyo's 23 wards and 5 cities, Okinawa‘s 9 cities, and Kyoto City have been newly added since the 12th due to the under pressure of medical care due to the increase in confirmed infections.

確かに医業は逼迫していた。が、 Certainly hospital management was a under pressure. but,  

緊急包括支援交付金は、"GoTo予算"の倍近い2兆2370億あった。 The emergency comprehensive support grant was 2,237 billion. 

にもかかわらず、何故まだ病床が足りないのか? Notwithstanding, why are there not enough sickbeds yet? 

https://www.nhk.or.jp/politics/articles/feature/40579.html

 
【CSF(豚コレラ)再び】CSF that came back

 日本におけるCSF感染(豚熱=豚コレラ)は、2019年の10月末から始まったワクチン接種以降、2020年の9月に群馬県高崎市で発生するまでは抑制が効いていた。ところが、12月には山形県や伊賀市、今年1月には和歌山県、先月末には奈良県、今月には群馬県前橋市や三重県津市でも確認される事となった。
 農場サイドからは「ワクチン接種をしているのに、なぜ発生するのか」などの声もある。が、ワクチン接種による免疫付与率は8割程度であり、絶対に安心ということはない。農水省は業界に対し、あくまでも農場における飼養衛生管理基準の遵守徹底が大前提であると述べている。
 EPAやFTA、TPPで輸出が許される清浄国ステータスNo.153参照)を取り戻すには、かなりの歳月を要する事になるだろう。

Since the vaccination that started at the end of October 2019, the infection of CSF in Japan has been suppressed until it occurred in Takasaki city Gunma prefecture in September 2020. however, in December 2020, Yamagata prefecture and Iga city Mie prefecture, 2021 Infection was confirmed in Wakayama prefecture in January, Nara prefecture at the end of March, and Maebashi city Gunma prefecture and Mie prefecture Tsu city in Mie prefecture in April.
Some farmers say, "Why does it occur even though I am vaccinated?", But the immunization rate by vaccination is about 80%, so there is absolutely no relief. The Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries has told the industry that thorough compliance with farm hygiene management standards is a major premise.
It will likely take a considerable amount of time to regain the Disease Free Status of Member Countries that is allowed to be exported by EPA, FTA, and TPP.

OIE=国際獣疫事務局 The World Organisation for Animal Health, formerly the Office International des Epizooties 
 

【大仏山公園】Daibutsuyama Park

新緑萌ゆる Fresh green leaves are very beautiful. 

 
【まん延防止等重点措置の追加②】Addition of Important Point Measures such as Prevention of Spread ②

Saitama City and Kawaguchi City in Saitama Prefecture. Chiba prefecture is Ichikawa city, Funabashi city, Matsudo city, Kashiwa city, Urayasu city. Kanagawa Prefecture is Yokohama City, Kawasaki City, and Sagamihara City. Aichi prefecture is Nagoya city.

80歳以上の死亡率は13.95%あるが、20代は0.0027%にすぎない。 The mortality rate over 80 years old is 1.35%, but 20s is 0.0027% only. 

【減り初めてきた民泊】Private lodging that has begun to decrease

【4月20日現在の感染確認数】Number of confirmed infections as of April 20

 47都道府県で確認された感染者数は54万680人、死者数は9709人で、死亡率は1.795%に減少した。が、世界平均も2.23%に減った。

The number of infected people confirmed in 47 prefectures was 540,680, and the number of deaths was 9,709. the mortality reduced to 1.795%. But the world average has also dropped to 2.23%.

PCR検査件数の内訳 - 厚労省のHPから Breakdown of the number of PCR tests - From the MHLW‘s website 

【氷山の一角】The tip of the iceberg

 楽天グループは先月、日本郵政と騰訊控股(テンセント)の子会社から2,000億円以上を調達し、事実上テンセントが大株主となったが、4月21日の日本の株式市場での株価は前日から4.1%~6%下落した。約一ヶ月ぶりの大幅安である。
 日米両政府がこの日、経済安全保障の観点から、楽天の共同監視方針を固めたからだ。警告である。

Last month, Rakuten Group raised more than 200 billion yen from Japan Post Holdings and Tencent's subsidiaries, and Tencent became a major shareholder, but its stock price fell 4.1% - 6% from the previous day in the Japanese stock market on April 21. it is fell one this is the lowest price since about a month.
This day, because the US and Japanese governments have decided to jointly surveillance the Rakuten from the perspective of economic security. It as a warning. (See "China’s Influence in Japan by CSIS" in the Appendix 3 No.152)

 
【地域の観光資源の磨き上げを通じた域内連携促進に向けた実証事業】4/22三重ふるさと新聞版 Demonstration project to promote regional cooperation by refining local tourism resources, April 22 the newspaper edition

 
【三度目の緊急事態宣言】Declaration of a state of emergency of 3rd time

 まん延防止の責任は都道府県知事が負い、緊急事態の責任は国が負う。しかし、変異ウイルスの感染力は強いものの、死亡率が下がってきている事からみて、弱毒化してきた可能性が高いようである。

The prefectural governor is responsible for preventing proliferation, and the cabinet is responsible for emergencies. however although the infectivity of the mutant virus is strong, it seems highly likely that it has become attenuated, given that the mortality rate is declining.

【AI機械学習によるカラー化】Colorize by AI machine learning

 世界的日本ブームを巻き起こした米パラマウントの「将軍」は、三重県紀伊長島でロケされた。この五枚の写真は、私が第13回OECD&欧州統計局の観光統計フォーラムで公開したものだが、もともと白黒スナップなので、今回初めてAI機械学習でカラーライズしてみた。(元のモノクロ写真はNo.89参照)

The "Shogun" of Paramount, which was the source of the Japan boom in the worldwide, was shot in Kii-Nagashima, Mie Prefecture. This 5 photos was published by me at the 13th OECD and EUROSTAT Tourism Statistics Forum, and for the first time, I tried to colorize by AI machine learning this time, because the original was monochrome. (See No.89 for the original monochrome photos)

 
【4月30日現在の感染確認数】Number of confirmed infections as of April 30

 47都道府県で確認された感染者数は59万3671人、死者数は1万253人で、死亡率は1.73%へと更に減少、世界平均も2.2%に減った。
 ロイターによると、4月30日現在の100人当たりのワクチン接種回数は、イスラエルが121.09、英国が70.91、米国が70.16、ドイツが33.19、中国が16.95。 一方、日本は2.55しかなく、韓国の5.81をも下回っている。

The number of infected people confirmed in 47 prefectures was 593,671, and the number of deaths was 10,253. the mortality reduced to 1.73%. The death toll was 10,253 and the mortality rate dropped further to 1.73% and the world average has also dropped to 2.2%.
According to Reuters, as of April 30, the number of vaccinations per 100 people is 121.09 for Israel, 70.91 for the United Kingdom, 70.16 for the United States, 33.19 for Germany, and 16.95 for China. on the other hand, Japan has only 2.55, which is lower than South Korea's 5.81.

Copyright (C) 2015 O.H.M.S.S. All rights reserved.

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O.H.M.S.S.(Ohuda Higashi-kishu Matsusaka-area Sightseeing Support)
Shigeki Imura

a supporting member of UNWTO / APTEC

"About the involvement of the tourism industry with regional development"
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