No.157 "About the involvement of the tourism industry with regional development 2021" January issue

明けぬ夜はない There is no night that doesn't dawn

【日本の感染者と重傷者と死亡者数の推移(日毎) 12月31日現在】Number of infected and seriously injured and fatalities in Japan (per day), As of December 31

Note the number of digits on the vertical axis

感染者数 Number of infected people in Japan
重傷者数 Number of seriously injured in Japan
死亡者数 Number of fatalities in Japan

【日本では多くの旅行会社が倒産を免れている】Many travel agencies are spared bankruptcy in Japan

 帝国データバンクによると、2020年1~11月の日本国内の旅行会社の倒産件数は24件。一方、ホテルや旅館の倒産件数は111件にものぼる。飲食店の倒産件数は過去最高の736件だ。これが「Go To トラベル」の真意である。

According to Teikoku Databank, the number of bankruptcies of travel agencies in Japan from January to November 2020 was 24. On the other hand, the number of bankruptcies of hotels and inns is as high as 111. the number of bankruptcies in the restaurant business was a record high of 736. This is the true intention of "Go To Travel".

【伊勢神宮(内宮+外宮)三が日間の訪問者数】Number of visitors to Ise Jingu (Naiku + Geku) during the three days of the New Year


Ise Jingu in Ise City, Mie Prefecture, announced on the 4th that the total number of worshipers on New Year's Day was about 170,000, a decrease of about 70% from about 560,000 in the same period last year. It seems that there were many people who refrained from visiting the shrine due to the spread of the novel coronavirus infection. According to the Jingu Shrine of Ise Jingu, the number of worshipers on New Year's Day was about 66,000, which was about a quarter of last year. there was 65,535 people on the 1st, 59,076 people on the 2nd, and 45,914 people on the 3rd, and there are a total of 170,525 people.

【異常な高額受領】The unusually high receipts

 ちなみに「Go To トラベル」は、五輪が開催される予定だった7月末に始まった。前述の如く、これは旅行業界の救済策である。が、この4月から8月にかけてのJTBグループ10社の外国人旅行取扱額は、計算してみたところ、22億4534万2千円にすぎない。

Below are the Travel Balance credits, the number of International Tourism Arrivals, and, the unit price per person, I gave to my colleagues on January 6. the source is a monthly report from the Treasury and JNTO that I record. (Sep. and Oct. are estimates by JNTO) As you can see, we can see the unusually high receipts from April to summer season of 2020. as a result, the unit price per person has increased dramatically to 10 million units. the reason is not clear, but it's definitely the hand carry. according to the BOJ, the travel balance is local consumption when traveling for sightseeing / business trips, study abroad, and medical treatment. If this is an advance payment for the Olympics, it can be said to be one of the reasons why we have to hold it even if we don't like it.
Incidentally, "Go To Travel" started on July, when the Olympic Games were supposed to be held. As mentioned earlier, this is a remedy for the travel agencies. But, the amount of foreigner travel handled by the 10 JTB Group companies from April to August is only 2,245,342,000 JPY when calculated.

【緊急事態宣言に伴う全国的な旅行に係るGo Toトラベル事業の取扱い】Handling of GO To Travel Business related to nationwide travel accompanying a state of emergency

【1月10日現在の感染確認数】Number of confirmed infections as of January 10


The number of infected people confirmed in 47 prefectures was 289,463, and the number of deaths was 4,080. the mortality rate reduced to 1.41%.
There are various theories as to why Japan has so few deaths. These are called Factor X, and BCG vaccination is Influential theory. in addition, it has also been pointed out that Japanese people always drink green tea.
The professor explained, "Some teas have a high ability to lose infectivity and some teas do not." the mechanism of inactivation is unknown, but he pointed out that catechin contained in tea may be involved.

【世代間格差】Intergenerational disparity


In Japan, the coronavirusrarely does not deprive the working-age population, as far as the graph of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research research shows.


However, the number of votes will definitely decrease.

【英国国家統計局-イングランドおよびウェールズにおける週毎の登録死亡者】Office for National Statistics - Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales

 イングランドとウェールズ 2019年12月28日から2021年1月1日までの年齢層別登録死亡者

【2020年3月1日から2021年1月7日までのフランスにおけるコロナウイルスによる死亡者の年齢層別内訳】Breakdown of coronavirus deaths in France from March 1, 2020 to January 7, 2021, by age group

 Statista Research Departmentによると、フランスでの新型コロナウイルスの犠牲者のほぼ80%が75歳以上であったことがわかる。

According to the Statista Research Department, We can see that almost 80 percent of the victims of the new coronavirus in France were aged 75 or more.

【2021年1月5日現在のイタリアにおけるコロナウイルスによる年齢層別死亡者】Coronavirus deaths in Italy as of January 5, 2021, by age group


Also, more than 85% of the 75,000 coronavirus deaths in Italy, were patients age 70 and older.

【2021年1月9日現在、米国で報告されているCOVID-19の年齢別死亡者数】COVID-19 deaths reported in the U.S. as of January 9, 2021, by age


And, between the beginning of February 2020 and January 9, 2021, of 329,593 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States, almost 105,673 had occurred among those aged 85 years and older. victims over the age of 75 account for 59.6% of the total.

【2020年11月の国際収支】November's Balance of payments 2020


On January 11, the Japanese Ministry of Finance announced the November‘s balance of payments. the current account balance is surplus of 1.8784 trillion JPY.
Trade balance is surplus of 616.1 billion JPY. also travel balance was surplus of 27.6 billion JPY. Inbound in November was 56,700 (provisional value) and outbound was 30,700 (provisional value). credit is 52.4 billion JPY and debit is 24.8 billion JPY. the unit price per person is inbound 924,162 JPY, and outbound 807,817 JPY. unusually high credit (receipts) unit price due to inbound seems to have subsided.
However, air passenger was deficit 1.7 billion JPY, as inbound exceeded outbound for the first time in a long time. also sea passenger was deficit 200 million JPY.
In addition, other services was deficit 127.9 billion JPY. total of the service balances was deficit 181.6 billion JPY.

【日本の緊急事態宣言】Declaration of a state of emergency in Japan (As of January 13)

Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa, Tochigi, Gifu, Aichi, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Fukuoka


On this day, it was also decided to suspend short-term stays and long-term stays (business traffic) for business people from 11 countries and regions to Japan. In other words, also the acceptance of foreign workers stopped. Foreigners who can enter the country after that are limited to re-entry of if you have a status of residence or humanitarian reasons such as treatment of illness or funeral of a relative.

【1月20日現在の感染確認数】Number of confirmed infections as of January 20


The number of infected people confirmed in 47 prefectures was 289,463, and the number of deaths was 4,080. The mortality rate further decreased to 1.38%. The mortality rate by age group in Japan is as you can see.

【五輪がキャンセルできない理由】Reasons why the Olympics cannot be canceled

【マイナス87.1パーセント】Minus 87.1 percent


On January 20, JNTO announced that the number of foreign visitors to Japan in 2020 was 4,115,900 (estimated), a decrease of 87.1% from the previous year. This is less than 6.21 million in 2011, when the Great East Japan Earthquake and nuclear power plant explosion occurred, and it was the lowest level since 4.1 million in 1998.
The number of inbound tourists, which had reached a record high for seven consecutive years since 2013, reached 31.882 million in 2019, and the target for 2020, when the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics were scheduled to be held was 40 million.

【インターナショナル・ツーリズム・ハイライト2020】International Tourism Highlights 2020


On January 21, UNWTO sent me a galley proof for "International Tourism Highlights 2020" (thanks to Senior assistant).
This is the international tourism in 2019 overview and the data of countries / regions. the following is a partial translation of the overview, but I think it is most important to understand pages 4-5 from the perspective of earning foreign currency in international trade.

国際ツーリズムの傾向, 2019


・2019年では、中東を中心にすべての地域で到着数が増加した(+8%)。 アジア太平洋とヨーロッパはどちらも4%の成長を遂げた。

 +4% 14億6000万米ドル

 +3% 1兆4,810億米ドル



2019 – 10年連続の持続的成長










右グラフ 2019年の旅行収支で最大の黒字を誇る国(10億米ドル)













左グラフ 世界の上位10か国が、世界の到着数の40%を受け取る
右グラフ 観光収入上位10か国が観光収入総額の約50%を占める








左グラフ 世界の旅行は欧州からが約二分の一を占める
右グラフ 依然として中国は国際ツーリズム支出の五分の一を占め、次にアメリカ合衆国が続く



【大宇陀へ】Into Ohuda

 小雨ということもあって冬場は難儀な高見峠も8℃と温かく、コロナ禍以来長らく海辺や島嶼生活だった私にとって、伊勢街道/和歌山街道のフィトンチッドは爽快だ。 が、何より有難いのは情報の交換と共有である。

It was a long time since the corona pandemic, but I visited Ohuda, Nara prefecture for the first time in a while. the companions is the chairman of Matsusaka Ryokan Association and the honorary director of the Motoori Norinaga Museum.
Due to the light rain, the Takami Pass, which is a difficult place in winter, was warm at 8 ℃. For me, who has lived on the beach and islands for a long time since the corona pandemic, the nostalgic Ise Kaido / Wakayama Kaido phytoncide was refreshing. But the most useful thing is the exchange and sharing of informations.
Since it was a departure from the afternoon, we crossed the prefectural border and when we entered Yoshino, we stopped by "Hiyoshi no Sato Marche". One of my old friend is baking bread here. however, unfortunately, She was absent on this day because it was a holiday, and the staff introduced me to a new store manager. He used to work at Roadside Station Udaji-Ohuda. He said we had started ramen anew. at the table partitioned by acrylic boards with stylish wooden frames, several customers kept their social distance and had been a late lunch.
I can't stop talking with the store manager, but we can't keep friends of Ohuda waiting. We ate freshly baked bread and headed to Uda City.
Ohuda in Uda City was called "Akino" in ancient times and was a hunting ground for the court. In addition, "Utano" was written in "Nihon Shoki", and until the Edo period, herbal hunting,
cultivation, and production of crude drugs were actively carried out. Kakinomotono Hitomaro, a poet at the Asuka period, is said to have served as a junior officer of Kusakabeno Miko by Kamono Mabuchi. Hitomaro wrote a waka poem in Akino, saying, "I can see the dawn of the sun shining in the eastern sky, and when I look back and look west, the moon is about to set in the western sky." In addition, after Akiyama-shi in the Middle Ages, the ruler changed, and in the 17th century of the Edo period, it became a castle town of 30,000 goku of the Oda Matsuyama-han, and after the transfer of Oda it was under the direct control of the Edo Shogunate.
We friend's shop is Narazuke shop, who is also the chairman of the chamber of commerce in the middle of the important traditional buildings preservation district in Matsuyama, Uda City. Here, we asked about the current situation in the coronavirus pandemic and its countermeasures. In addition, In the president's house of the construction company who was the chairman of the tourism association, we was able to warm up the old relationship in a cozy atmosphere.
Winter dusk is early. Finally, we stopped by our friend's soy sauce shop and left Ohuda. I couldn't stop by because the time was up, but according to the Narazuke shop, the chief priest of Tenyakuji is also very well. we would like to meet after the corona.
By the way, regarding the exchange and sharing of information, one is that we delivered a pamphlet of a ryokan of Watakano-shima, and the other is that there are no coronavirus-infected people in Ohuda. And, although this talk is only in a moving car, it a consideration about the coronavirus pandemic by my data analysis. we maybe "can't see the forest for the trees". the details will be published in the next issue.

Copyright (C) 2015 O.H.M.S.S. All rights reserved.


O.H.M.S.S.(Ohuda Higashi-kishu Matsusaka-area Sightseeing Support)
Shigeki Imura

a supporting member of UNWTO / APTEC

"About the involvement of the tourism industry with regional development"
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