2019年12月1日日曜日

No.144 "About the involvement of the tourism industry with regional development 2019" December issue

【ホテルの稼働率と売上推計】Hotel occupancy rate and sales estimated value

This is the occupancy rate for hotels and ryokans based on the Big data that is used experimentally by a certain research institution in Japan. The period is from September 26 to November 30. the denominator is different, but If you look at this you can see the balance between capacity and demand of the accommodation business. In the case of these area, the disparity between busy days and non-busy days is very large because there is little inbound. the high rate of Ise is due to the increase in Ise Jingu worshipers due to the change and visiting of the Emperor. However, there are not many overflows to neighboring cities. I think that it will turn to a decreasing trend from next year, unless there is an increase factor. If an average of 50% or more is always required, refilling by inbound is necessary, because it will decrease rather than increase by the Tokyo Olympics.
To that end, the efforts of the local government are necessary because the corporate efforts of individual hotels are not enough. That is, it branding for foreigners.
By the way, also James Bond was came to Ise Jingu's Geku with Tiger Tanaka in Fleming’s novel, and he had Worship in disguise as a Japanese.
https://ohmss700.blogspot.com/2016/01/ 007 had-already-come-to-mie-prefecture_24.html

 これは、日本の某研究機関で実験的に使用されているビッグデータに基づいたホテルおよび旅館の稼働率である。期間は9月26日から11月30日までで、地域によって分母は異なるが、これを見ると宿泊施設ビジネスのキャパシティと需要のバランスが分かる。
 これらの地域の場合、インバウンドがほとんどないため、繁忙期と非繁忙期の落差は非常に大きくなる。伊勢の高率は、天皇陛下の交代と訪問による伊勢神宮参拝者の増加によるものだ。とはいえ、近隣都市へのオーバーフローがそれほど多いとは言えない状況である。総じて言えば、増える要素がない以上、次年度から減少に転じるのは不可避であろう。平均50%以上を常に求めるのならば、東京五輪では増加どころか減少するため、インバウンドによる補完が必要である。
 そのためには、個々のホテルの企業努力だけでは限界があり、どうしても地方行政の努力が必要になる。つまるところ、外国人向けのブランディングである。
 ちなみに、ジェームズ・ボンドもフレミングの小説でタイガー田中とともに伊勢神宮の外宮に来ており、彼は日本人に変装して参拝していた。
https://ohmss700.blogspot.com/2016/01/ 007 had-already-come-to-mie-prefecture_24.html

Ian Fleming at Japan

Within 5 km around Tsu Station - daily occupancy rate (%)


Within 5 km around Matsusaka Station - daily occupancy rate (%)


Within 5 km around Ise Station - daily occupancy rate (%)


Within 5 km around Futami Station - daily occupancy rate (%)


Within 5 km around Toba Station - daily occupancy rate (%)


Within 5 km around Kashikojima Station - daily occupancy rate (%)


Next, sales estimated value are as follows, but I don't disclose specific figures here. because there is a need for scrutiny. However, I think it turns out that it cannot be said that profitability is high by this intensity of the amplitude.

 次に、売上の推定値は次のとおりとなる。が、ここでは具体的な数値は非開示とする。精査の必要があるからだ。とはいえ、この振幅の強さでは収益性が高いとは言えない。

Within 5 km around Tsu Station - daily sales estimated value (¥)


Within 5 km around Matsusaka Station - daily sales estimated value (¥)


Within 5 km around Ise Station - daily sales estimated value (¥)


Within 5 km around Futami Station - daily sales estimated value (¥)


Within 5 km around Toba Station - daily sales estimated value (¥)


Within 5 km around Kashikojima Station - daily sales estimated value (¥)

【2019年10月の国際収支】October's Balance of payments 2019

[経常収支/国際収支 ]Current Account Balance / Balance of Payments

          Jan.  6,004
          Feb. 26,768
          Mar. 28,479
          Apr. 17,074
          May  15,948
          Jun. 12,112
          Jul. 19,999
          Aug. 18.237
          Sep. 16.129
          Oct. 18,168

[経常収支の内訳]Breakdown of the Current Account Balance

 ○貿易収支 Trade         ○サービス収支 Services
  Jan.▲9,448       Jan.▲1,512
  Feb. 4,892       Feb. 2,366
  Mar. 7,001       Mar. 3,451
  Apr.  ▲982       Apr.▲3,124
  May ▲6,509       May  1,372
  Jun. 7,593       Jun.   509
  Jul.  ▲745       Jul.▲2,299
  Aug.   509       Aug.   233
  Sep.    11       Sep.   401
  Oct. 2,540       Oct.  ▲995

 ○第一次所得収支 Primary Income ○第二次所得収支 Secondary Income
  Jan.17,592       Jan.  ▲428
  Feb.20,145       Feb.  ▲635
  Mar.20,564       Mar.▲2,538
  Apr.21,303       Apr.  ▲120
  May 22,574       May ▲1,488
  Jun. 4,273       Jun.  ▲263
  Jul.23,899       Jul.  ▲856
  Aug.22,681       Aug.▲1,846
  Sep.18,054       Sep.▲2,337
  Oct.17,775       Oct.▲1,151

[サービス収支の内訳]Breakdown of the Service Balance

 ○トランスポート Transport    ○トラベル Travel
  Jan.  ▲833       Jan. 2.271
  Feb.  ▲864       Feb. 2,274
  Mar.  ▲689       Mar. 2,076
  Apr.  ▲826       Apr. 2,564
  May   ▲779       May  2,305
  Jun.  ▲539       Jun. 2,332
  Jul.  ▲865       Jul. 2,293
  Aug.  ▲760       Aug. 1,518
  Sep.  ▲621       Sep. 1,503
  Oct.  ▲685       Oct. 2,035

         ○その他サービス Other Services
           Jan.▲2,950
           Feb.   957
           Mar. 2,064
           Apr.▲4,865
           May   ▲154
           Jun.▲1,284
           Jul.▲3,727
           Aug.  ▲525
           Sep.  ▲480
           Oct.▲2,345

[トランスポートの内訳]Breakdown of the Transport

  ○海上旅客 Sea Pasenger     ○海上貨物 Sea Freight
   Jan.    ▲4      Jan.  ▲515
   Feb.    ▲6      Feb.  ▲500
   Mar.     0      Mar.  ▲412
   Apr.   ▲12      Apr.  ▲571
   May    ▲23      May   ▲427
   Jun.   ▲16      Jun.  ▲267
   Jul.   ▲14      Jul.  ▲413
   Aug.   ▲13      Aug.  ▲451
   Sep.   ▲10      Sep.  ▲219
   Oct.   ▲12      Oct.  ▲262

  ○航空旅客 Air Passenger     ○航空貨物 Air Freight
   Jan.  ▲409      Jan.    46
   Feb.  ▲407      Feb.    39
   Mar.  ▲356      Mar.    41
   Apr.  ▲363      Apr.    55
   May   ▲456      May     38
   Jun.  ▲375      Jun.    60
   Jul.  ▲599      Jul.    54
   Aug.  ▲383      Aug.    41
   Sep.  ▲442      Sep.    35
   Oct.  ▲484      Oct.    30

                (単位:億円 Unit:100 million JPY)

【11月のインバウンド】 November's Inbound

 12/18の日本政府観光局の広報によると、11月の訪日外国人客数(推計値)は、前年同月比0.4%減の244万1300人で、8月以来三度目の前年割れとなった。韓国市場の下落を他国市場で賄いきれないからだ。一部のメディアに言える事だが、この程度でオーバーツーリズムを懸念するなど笑止であり、分散化できない言い訳に過ぎないと言える。

According to the JNTO press report on December 18, the number of foreign visitors to Japan (estimated) in November was 2,441,300, down 0.4% from the same month last year, it has been the third time year-on-year decrease since August. the reason is that the decline in the Korean market cannot be covered by the markets of other countries. As can be said to some media, at this level, it's too early to worry about overtourism. I think it is just an excuse that cannot be decentralized.


【日本の少子高齢化による急速な人口減少】Rapid population decline due to low birthrate and aging population in Japan

 これこそが、日本の地方都市がインバウンドで外貨を稼ぐ必要がある理由である。

This is just, why Japanese regional cities need to earn foreign currency by inbound.


Copyright (C) 2015 O.H.M.S.S. All rights reserved.

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O.H.M.S.S.(Ohuda Higashi-kishu Matsusaka-area Sightseeing Support) Shigeki Imura

a supporting member of UNWTO / APTEC

"About the involvement of the tourism industry with regional development"
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