【パラダイムシフトの予感】A sense of paradigm shift
このブログで15年間、国際政治と国際ツーリズムのトピックスを追ってきたが、その関係性は明確にある。上の新聞記事は2018年に発表したものだが、共和党政権が再び政権を握れば、万博開催を名目にインフラ整備が進む夢洲IRプロジェクトは強いしっぺ返しに遭う可能性が高い。民主党の金儲けの道具となるからだ。大阪府はハシゴを外されるかも知れない。
府と大阪IRとの間で取り交わされた実施協定には、事業者が事業の前提条件が整っていないと判断した場合、26年9月までは違約金なしで撤退できる「解除権」が設定されているが、博覧会国際事務局（BIE）のディミトリ・ケルケンツェス事務局長は、万博開催期間中におけるIR工事の騒音や景観への影響を強く懸念。事務局長の意向を受けた万博協会の会長（経団連会長）は、7月25日、大阪府知事と直接面会し、万博開催期間中の工事中断を求めた。これはまさに大阪府にとっては寝耳に水である。
I have been following the topics of international politics and international tourism on this blog for 15 years, and the connection clearly exists. The above newspaper article was published by me in 2018, but if the Republican administration were to take power again, the Yumeshima IR project, which has been developing infrastructure under the pretext of hosting the World Expo, is likely to face strong opposition. This is because it is a tool for the Democratic Party to make money. Osaka Prefecture may be left in the cold.
The implementation agreement between Osaka Prefecture and the Osaka IR provides for a right of withdrawal without penalty up until September 2026 if the operator determines that the prerequisites for the project have not been met, but Dimitri Kerkentzes, Secretary General of the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE), is deeply concerned about the noise and impact of IR construction on the scenery during the Expo. The Chairman of the Expo Association (Chairman of the Japan Business Federation), who received the Secretary General's wishes, met directly with the Governor of Osaka Prefecture on July 25th and requested that construction be suspended during the Expo. This comes as a complete surprise to Osaka Prefecture.
【小浜湾の花火】Fireworks in Ohama Bay
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【にっぽん丸の寄港 2024.0801】Nippon Maru's port call 2024.0801
【金融パラダイムシフトの始まり 2024.0802】The beginning of a financial paradigm shift 2024.0802
As predicted, the Nikkei average has plummeted to the same level as at the beginning of the year. On the 5th, it surpassed the all-time low recorded on October 20, 1987, the day after Black Monday. The next valley during will be during the Obon holiday. By this, Changes are also needed in attracting inbound tourists. I believe that C&C operations would be effective.
【早朝の神々2024.0806】The Early Morning Gods 2024.0806
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【2024年6月の国際収支】Balance of Payments for June 2024
航空旅客は黒字の14億円、海上旅客は赤字の4億円。その他サービスも8123億円の赤字となり、サービス収支全体では3758億円の赤字だ。
On August 8, the Ministry of Finance announced the balance of payments for June this year. The current account balance is a surplus 1533.5 billion JPY. Trade balance is a surplus of 533.6 billion JPY. Travel balance is a surplus of 450.6 billion JPY, consisting of 623.7 billion JPY in credit and 173.3 billion JPY in debit. According to JNTO, visitor arrivals for this month were 3,135,600 persons and Japanese Overseas is 930,200 persons. therefore, the unit price is 198,909 JPY for the inbound, and 186,304 JPY for the outbound.
Air passenger in a surplus at 1.4 billion JPY, and sea passenger in a deficit at 400 million JPY. Other services also posted a deficit of 812.3 billion JPY, leaving the overall services balance in a deficit at 375.8 billion JPY.
【資産価値の向上⑤】The improving asset value ⑤
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【地震考古学】The Earthquake Archaeology
怖くて日本語では書けません
This summer, the Nankai Trough earthquake was a hot topic, and our hotel was affected by cancellations. However, for the past 12 years, I have been using "Newton (June 2011 issue)" to record the movement of earthquake epicenters in the Kanto region. What we can learn from this is the fact that the Great Kanto Earthquake occurred before the Nankai Trough earthquake.
In short, tourism investment in Ise-Shima will remain viable, and if it also functions as a disaster prevention base capable of accommodating refugees from the Kanto region, we predict that its asset value will double over the next 10 years.
Let us go back to the historical major earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. First, there was the 1941 Hyuga-nada earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2, followed by the 1944 Tonankai earthquake with a magnitude of 7.9, and then the 1946 Nankai earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0. Before that, however, there were two major earthquakes off the coast of Kanagawa Prefecture, a nest of earthquakes at the intersection of the four plates: the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 (M7.9) and the 1924 (M7.3). Since ancient times, major earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 to 8.2 have occurred frequently in the vicinity of this area. It seems unlikely that a Nankai Trough earthquake will occur until these constraints are released!
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【お盆の谷】The valley during Obon holiday
【過ぎたるは及ばざるが如し】Too much of one thing is good for nothin
8月15日をもって南海トラフ地震臨時情報の一週間が終わった。 地震は発生せず、人命は失われなかった。なによりだ。
しかし、代償は大きかった。ここ三重県においても、当館を含めて多くの旅館がキャンセルに見舞われ、鳥羽市小浜の花火も中止、JR東海は「南紀」を運休、近鉄も8月9日の始発から15日の最終列車まで、一部特急列車の運用を変更して五十鈴川駅から賢島駅間の特急運行も取りやめとなった。飲料水やお米の買い占めも目立った。四六時中NHKがL字画面で危機感を煽った為である。この想定外の騒ぎに、三重県知事は県民に冷静さを求めた。が、人心を惑わす大本営発表の中、特に同調圧力に弱い世代には馬耳東風だった。そもそも、僅か一週間の短期間に0.5%もの確率で予知できる大地震など古今例はない。予言者レベルである。啓蒙ならば、関東大震災を記念した9月１日で充分だったのではないか（地震考古学の観点から見れば、南海トラフ地震の前に関東大震災が起こると考えられる）。
おかげで、連休書き入れ時のツーリズム業界は大損害である。従事者にとっては生計の危機だ。そして思ったのだが、もしこれが一週間ほど後先だったらどうだったか。日経平均株価への影響をはじめ、臨海にある工場やコンビナート群、原発、ならびに産業界を擁する経産省からの強い抵抗で、もう少し思慮分別のあるものが見られたのではないか。これこそは政治力の差、先進国を標榜するにもかかわらず、サービス貿易の重要性が未だ無関心である我が国において、「ツーリズムは不要不急の産業」との古い認識が残っている証左だといえる。私は、今回の騒ぎがツーリズムやインバウンド産業のみならず、地価の評価にもインパクトを与えた可能性を懸念している。
他所はどうか。紀伊半島南端にある和歌山県白浜には、昨秋クローズしたホテルマリテームの姉妹館がある。白浜は年間60万人が訪れる景勝地で、中止した花火大会も例年、3～4万人もの人出となる。旅館組合の計算によれば、1週間で5億円の損失で（これに加えて、飲食や観光施設などのマイナス分もある）、ツーリズムを生業としている者が被るにはあまりにも大きな損害である。そこで白浜の町長は、21~22日に上京して観光庁などを訪れ、観光客回復への施策について陳情をした。臨時情報を出したのは国だが、コロナ禍と違って、ビーチ閉鎖の決断を下したのは自治体だったので、国がその補填をするのは難しい。自治体としては、金融機関に対して損失が出た業者への無利子融資をお願いするとか、GOTOトラベルのような観光振興策を取れないかなど、今後、対応策を関係各所と検討するという。
さて、三重県はどうしうるだろうか？
August 15, marked the end of a week of the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information. No earthquake occurred, and no lives were lost. it's the good.
However, the cost was great. Here in Mie Prefecture, many inns, including ours, were hit with cancellations, the fireworks in Obama, Toba City were also canceled, JR Central suspended the "Nanki" service, and Kintetsu changed the operation of some of its limited express trains from the first train on August 9th to the last train on the 15th, and also canceled the limited express service between Isuzugawa Station and Kashikojima Station. There was also noticeable hoarding of drinking water and rice. This is because NHK was constantly stirring up a sense of crisis through its L-shaped screen. In response to this unexpected commotion, the Mie Prefecture governor called for calm among the prefecture's residents. But, amid the misleading announcements from Imperial Headquarters, it had no effect, especially on a generation that is vulnerable to peer pressure. In the first place, there is no precedent in history for a major earthquake that can be predicted with a 0.5% probability in a short period of just one week. It is at the level of a prophet. If we were to enlighten people, wouldn't September 1st, which commemorates the Great Kanto Earthquake, have been enough?（From the Earthquake Archaeology perspective, the Great Kanto earthquake will occur before the Nankai Trough earthquake.)
As a result, this is a huge loss for the tourism industry during the peak holiday season. For those involved, this poses a threat to their livelihood. And, it makes me wonder, what would have happened if this had happened a week later? Given the impact on the Nikkei average, as well as the strong resistance from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which represents the factories and industrial complexes along the coast, the nuclear power plant, and the industrial sector, perhaps a little more discretion would have been seen. This is evidence of the disparity in political power, and the fact that in Japan, which claims to be a developed nation but is still indifferent to the importance of trade in services, the old perception that "tourism is an unnecessary and non-urgent industry" persists. I am concerned that this incident may have had an impact not only on the tourism and inbound industries, but also on land price valuations.
What about other places? Shirahama, Wakayama Prefecture, at the southern tip of the Kii Peninsula, has a sister hotel of Hotel Maritème, which closed last fall. Shirahama is a scenic spot visited by 600,000 people a year, and the canceled fireworks festival usually attracts 30,000 to 40,000 people. According to calculations by the inn association, the loss is 500 million JPY in one week (in addition to this, there are losses for restaurants, beverages, tourist facilities, etc.), which is too much damage for those who make their living from tourism. Therefore, the mayor of Shirahama went to Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd to visit the Japan Tourism Agency and other organizations and petitioned for measures to recover tourists. The emergency information was issued by the national government, but unlike Wuhan virus pandemic, it was the local government that made the decision to close the beaches, so it will be difficult for the national government to compensate for the loss. The local government will consider countermeasures with relevant parties in the future, such as asking financial institutions to provide interest-free loans to businesses that have incurred losses, and whether it is possible to take measures to promote tourism such as Go To Travel.
Well, what can Mie Prefecture do?
【中国市場からの撤退】Withdrawal from the Chinese market
豪州カンタス航空は、7月末以降シドニー〜上海便を運休しているが、同月、英航空会社ヴァージン・アトランティックも、上海〜ロンドン便の就航中止を発表。25年間にわたって就航を続けてきた中国市場からの完全撤退を決めた。また、ロイヤルブルネイ航空も10月末からの北京発着便の一時運休を決め、今月初旬には、ブリティッシュ・エアウェイズもロンドン〜北京便の1年間の運休を発表した。
こうした外国航空会社の撤退について、中国メディアは「儲からないからだ」とし、その理由として、欧米航空会社はロシアの領空を飛べなくなったので、欧米から中国に向かう便は、ロシア上空を飛行する権利を持つ中国の航空会社よりも、長距離を飛行しなくてはならないからだと伝える。
しかし、旅行メディア「LuJie」は、カンタスインターナショナルのCEOの言として、航空便の供給はコロナ禍によるパンデミック前の100%まで回復しているが、中国需要は3分の2しか戻っていないという。外国航空会社の中国撤退の本当の理由は「需要不足」である。
また、「ボイス・オブ・アメリカ」は、4月、米大手航空会社と航空組合が政府に宛てた書簡で、航空市場における不均衡を訴え、「中国航空会社によるこれ以上の就航を許可しないよう」要求したと報じている。中国の航空会社がウクライナ侵攻を利用して市場シェアを拡大しているという事実も問題だ。
然もありなん、コロナ禍前、中国はツーリズムによって年間軍事予算近い規模の外貨を流出させたが、CCPはそれ以来、特にサービス収支には神経を尖らせているのだ。
Chinese media has said that the reason for the withdrawal of these foreign airlines is that they are no longer profitable. The reason given is that Western airlines are no longer allowed to fly over Russian airspace, so flights from Western countries to China have to fly longer distances than Chinese airlines that have the rights to fly over Russian airspace.
However, travel media LuJie quoted the CEO of Qantas International as saying that while flight capacity has recovered to 100% of pre-Wuhan virus pandemic levels, demand in China has only returned to two-thirds. The real reason foreign airlines are withdrawing from China is "lack of demand."
In addition, Voice of America reported that in April, major U.S. airlines and airline unions wrote to the government, complaining about imbalances in the aviation market and urging it not to allow Chinese airlines to launch more flights. The fact that Chinese airlines are using the Ukrainian invasion to gain market share is also problematic.
This is not surprising, as before Wuhan virus pandemic, tourism was draining China of foreign currency equivalent to its annual military budget, and since then, CCP has been particularly sensitive about its services balance.
【台風接近中】Typhoon approaching
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O.H.M.S.S.(Ohuda Higashi-kishu Matsusaka-area Sightseeing Support)
Representative Shigeki Imura
a support member of UN Tourism / APTEC
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