【籔内佐斗司の世界観】Satoshi Yabuuchi's worldview
11月26日、三井越後屋創業350周年記念事業として、旧長谷川邸で展示・講演会が開催された。14時から社員寮の内覧があったので講演には間に合わなかったが、閉館前に展示品を撮ることができた。館長に感謝。
On November 26, an exhibition and lecture was held at the former Hasegawa residence as an event commemorating the 350th anniversary of Mitsui Echigoya founding. I wasn't able to make it in time for the lecture because I had a preview of the employee dormitory starting at 14:00, but I was able to take photos of the exhibit before the closing. Thank you, Residence Director.
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【資産価値の向上】The improving asset value
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【ツーリズムバロメーター】Tourism Barometer
このところ多忙で訪問していないのだが、国連世界観光機関から報道発表資料が届いた。アブストラクトは以下の通りである。
I haven't been there lately because I've been busy, but I received a press release from the United Nations World Tourism Organization. the abstract is as follows.
International tourism to end 2023 close to 90% of pre-pandemic levels
International tourism recovered 87% of pre-pandemic levels in the period January-July 2023 (-16% versus 2019) backed by continued pent-up demand in the third quarter of 2023.
An estimated 975 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September 2023, an increase of 38% over the same months of 2022, though 13% fewer than in 2019.
International tourism receipts could reach USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.
These results reflect the strong recovery of demand in 2023.
By regions, the Middle East continued to lead the recovery by regions in relative terms, with arrivals 20% above pre-pandemic levels in the first nine months of 2023. Europe, the world’s largest destination region, reached 94% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by robust intra-regional demand.
Africa recovered 92% of pre-crisis visitors this nine-month period and the Americas 88%. In Asia and the Pacific arrivals climbed to 62% of pre-pandemic levels.
By subregions, North Africa (+5%), Central America (+4%) and Southern Mediterranean Europe (+1%) continued to exceed pre-pandemic levels in January-September 2023.
International arrivals are expected to reach 1.3 billion overall in 2023, up 33% over 2022 and almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels, in line with UNWTO scenarios published in January.
Against this backdrop, international tourism is well on track to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024 despite economic challenges and uncertainty derived from certain geopolitical tensions and conflicts.
【晩秋の外宮】Geku in late autumn
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【2023年10月の国際収支】Balance of Payments for October 2023
航空旅客は赤字の60億円、海上旅客も赤字の17億円。一方、その他サービスは732億円の黒字となり、サービス収支全体でも2878億円の黒字となった。知的財産権等使用料が伸びた結果である。
ところで、不動産取引も広い意味ではサービス貿易の一つである（貿易収支は動産に限られる）。円安による訪日旅行者の増加や資金調達金利の低さなどから、国内ホテル分野への海外投資家の関心が高まっている。米調査会社ＭＳＣＩリアル・アセッツによると、海外投資家は今年初めから８月までに日本のホテル部門に20億ドル（約2944億円）を投資した。投資額は2022年通年の水準を上回り、アジアの分野別商業用不動産投資額としては最大となる。
そんな中、米投資ファンドのブラックストーン・グループが、マリオット・インターナショナル保有のモクシー京都二条ホテルを、ゴールドマン・サックス証券から約80億円で買収した。ブラックストーンと言えば、2021年の10月に近鉄グループから、志摩ベイサイドテラス、奥志摩アクアフォレストなど8つのホテルを買収（そのスキームは No.167の【地銀の挑戦】 参照）、過去２年間で12ホテルを取得している。モクシーはマリオットのホテルブランドの一つで、国内では京都のほか錦糸町や大阪など計４軒あり、モクシー京都二条は2021年７月に開業、客室数は158室ある。
On December 8, the Ministry of Finance announced the balance of payments for October this year. The current account balance is a surplus 2,582.8 billion JPY. Trade balance was a deficit of 472.8 billion JPY. Travel balance is a surplus of 320.7 billion JPY, consisting of 490.9 billion JPY in credit and 179.2 billion JPY in debit. According to JNTO, visitor arrivals for this month were 2,516,500 persons and Japanese Overseas is 937,700 persons. therefore, the unit price is 195,073 JPY for the inbound, and 191,106 JPY for the outbound.
Air passengers is a deficit of 6 billion JPY, and Sea passengers also is a deficit of 1.7 billion JPY. On the other hand, Other services had a surplus of 73.2 billion JPY, and Overall service balance was a surplus of 287.8 billion JPY. this is the result of growth in Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.
By the way, real estate transactions are also a type of Service trade in a broad sense (Trade balance is limited to movable property.) foreign investors' interest in the domestic hotel sector is increasing due to an increase in the number of visitors to Japan due to the weak yen, and low interest rates for financing. According to the MSCI Real Assets, foreign investors invested $2 billion (approximately 294.4 billion JPY) in Japan's hotel sector from the beginning of this year to August. The investment amount exceeded the level for the whole of 2022, and is the largest amount of commercial real estate investment by sector in Asia.
Against this backdrop, American investment fund Blackstone Group has purchased Moxy Kyoto Nijo Hotel, a property owned by Marriott International, from Goldman Sachs Securities for approximately 8 billion JPY. Speaking of Blackstone, it acquired eight hotels from the Kintetsu Group in October 2021, including Shima Bayside Terrace and Okushima Aqua Forest (For that scheme, see No.167 [The challenge of regional banks]), and has acquired 12 hotels in the past two years. Moxy is one of Marriott's hotel brands, and there are four hotels in Japan, including in Kyoto, Kinshicho, and Osaka, Moxy Kyoto Nijo opened in July 2021 and has 158 rooms.
【ボンド26】(12月14日の新聞掲載版) Bond 26 (The newspaper version of December 14)
【竹神社のクリスマス】Christmas at Take Jinja Shrine
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【伊勢神宮の年末年始】Year-end and New Year at Ise Jingu
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